Resilient Leaders and Institutional Reform: Theory and Evidence∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
Strengthening executive constraints is one of the key means of improving political governance. This paper examines how such reforms are related to threats to the tenure of ruling political incumbents. We formalize this idea theoretically and test it empirically, using data on leaders since 1875. Specifically, we distinguish leaders with different degrees of resilience as leaders who die from natural causes in office. We present econometric evidence in line with the theoretical predictions: the exit of a resilient leader raises the anual probablity of reform towards strong executive constraints by about 100%. Moreover, we show that this effect is specific to strengthening executive constraints and does not reflect generalized
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